Post by johng on Jun 14, 2022 18:30:07 GMT
The inaugural ECASHL draft was in 1990, I thought it might be a good time to take a look back and see where they are today. I've listed everyone below in current rating order.
Headers are: Pick #, Draft Team, Player, Rating at draft + ditr, Current rating + rolls, Current Team
Top 9 picks - 80ov+
4 Devils (from Penguins) Sergei Zubov 75a 86 Devils
3 Nordiques Peter Bondra 77a 85 Penguins
2 MapleLeafs Jaromir Jagr 75a 84 Canucks
1 Canucks Martin Brodeur 75a 83 Canucks
5 Flyers Keith Tkachuk 72a 81 Leafs
6 NorthStars Doug Weight 72a 80 Jets
12 Jets (from Sabres) Owen Nolan 71a 80 Jets
13 Islanders Mikael Renberg 70b 80 Islanders
38 Jets (from Rangers) Richard Smehlik 73a 80 Leafs
Smehlik was the +5 DITR and he becomes the steal of the draft. Other notables would be Owen Nolan and Mikael Renberg, both of whom were ROTY candidates in season 3 and 4 respectively.
No one from this group claimed the ROTY award, however, in season 2 both Jagr and Bondra got nominations.
It's hard to argue with the draft order based on the outcomes above, Zubov was 20 and Bondra 22 at the draft, making Jagr/Marty #1-2 for sure.
Next 5 picks at 77-79
10 Nordiques (from Jets) Darryl Sydor 70a 79 Flyers
15 Jets (from Blackhawks) Alexei Zhamnov 71b 79 Kings
21 Penguins (from Canadiens) Valeri Zelepukin 72b 79 Penguins
14 NorthStars (from Bruins) Petr Nedved 70b 77a (2) Kings
9 Whalers Keith Primeau 71a 77 Nordiques
This is where things get interesting, Zelepukin wasn't a DITR but developed nicely, drafted at 22 years old, he isn't a huge steal but definitely an impact player and clearly the best late pick.
The others in this group are right where you'd want them having come from the middle of the draft. No disappointments.
Next 8 - 74-76ov
18 Devils (from Capitals) Craig Conroy 70b 76 Blues
57 Canucks (from Blackhawks) Ian Moran 68a 76a (1) Canucks
20 Jets (from Red Wings) Robert Lang 70b 75b (3) Jets
17 Devils (from Rangers) Felix Potvin 70a 75a (3) Leafs
7 Jets (from Devils) Sergei Nemchinov 75c 75 Kings
11 Canucks (from Kings) Derian Hatcher 70a 75 Canucks
42 Kings (from Canadiens) Alexander Godynyuk 67c 74 Kings
8 Flames (from Blues) Slava Kozlov 71a 74a (6) Kings
Ok, here we have 2 huge busts, starting with Sergei Nemchinov, drafted by the Jets 7th overall, he would have been better value selected in the 2nd round. For comparison I threw the top 2nd rounder in this group not a DITR, Godynyuk, a player I created immediately as 67, he organically grew into 74ov (only camped once).
The other bust is Slava Kozlov, a poor roll of 6 will obviously be addressed in the offseason, he could jump up to 77a with a solid roll. Placing him into the top 15, but not top 10 value and lags significantly behind Doug Weight who was 19 at the draft but currently 6 rating points higher!
Meanwhile Ian Moran stands out, another DITR, a clear steal and by the Canucks of course! And then Rob Lang with a re-roll could vault his value into the top 15 of this draft as well, making it a nice value pick.
The end of the draft 67-73ov (there could be more outliers I didn't find)
16 Canucks (from Flames) Bryan Smolinski 70b 73a (1) Jets
19 Blackhawks (from Oilers) Roman Turek 71a 72b (6) Whalers
51 Whalers Cam Stewart 68a 72a (5) Whalers
23 Canadiens (from MapleLeafs) Vyacheslav Butsayev 70b 70 Habs
62 Jets (from Red Wings) Jeff Nielsen 69a 70 Flames
54 Devils (from Sabres) Chris McAlpine 68b 67b (2) Devils
This isn't the full draft but it's the remainder of useful players, and it features the resurrection of Bryan Smolinski, hitting on his roll, he regains value. Although still in bust territory.
Roman Turek rolled poorly, he could jump to 78b will a nice roll and, making him a solid pick at 19.
Cam Stewart was a DITR and had a poor roll as well, his stock could jump significantly.
The rest are pretty much busts, with Butsayev going from a nice steal DITR pick to a big disappointment for the Habs.
1990 Summarized
I would caution against drafting over-age players like Nemchinov too high in the draft, that was a huge mistake at 7th overall. Now he has had a decent career, but value-wise it could be the worst pick ever.
The DITR definitely provided value for a couple of players, but there are still some surprises without any ditr involved, and it appears player development after the draft makes the difference. Some DITR did not pan out at all and while I wouldn't call them busts, it shows what a crap-shoot the draft can be after the top 15 or so picks.
Now this could be a product of not camping guys soon enough. From the looks of it, current prospects have slipped or not kept pace with their compatriots who were drafted lower but turned pro sooner. I think Kozlov (8th) v Weight (6th) being the prime example, a huge rating gap between them, despite being drafted back-to-back and an argument could be made that Kozlov should have been picked higher (being younger).
I'll take a look at the 1991 draft after dice-rolls are updated on the prospect page as it will require far more cross-referencing. Hope you enjoyed this!
Headers are: Pick #, Draft Team, Player, Rating at draft + ditr, Current rating + rolls, Current Team
Top 9 picks - 80ov+
4 Devils (from Penguins) Sergei Zubov 75a 86 Devils
3 Nordiques Peter Bondra 77a 85 Penguins
2 MapleLeafs Jaromir Jagr 75a 84 Canucks
1 Canucks Martin Brodeur 75a 83 Canucks
5 Flyers Keith Tkachuk 72a 81 Leafs
6 NorthStars Doug Weight 72a 80 Jets
12 Jets (from Sabres) Owen Nolan 71a 80 Jets
13 Islanders Mikael Renberg 70b 80 Islanders
38 Jets (from Rangers) Richard Smehlik 73a 80 Leafs
Smehlik was the +5 DITR and he becomes the steal of the draft. Other notables would be Owen Nolan and Mikael Renberg, both of whom were ROTY candidates in season 3 and 4 respectively.
No one from this group claimed the ROTY award, however, in season 2 both Jagr and Bondra got nominations.
It's hard to argue with the draft order based on the outcomes above, Zubov was 20 and Bondra 22 at the draft, making Jagr/Marty #1-2 for sure.
Next 5 picks at 77-79
10 Nordiques (from Jets) Darryl Sydor 70a 79 Flyers
15 Jets (from Blackhawks) Alexei Zhamnov 71b 79 Kings
21 Penguins (from Canadiens) Valeri Zelepukin 72b 79 Penguins
14 NorthStars (from Bruins) Petr Nedved 70b 77a (2) Kings
9 Whalers Keith Primeau 71a 77 Nordiques
This is where things get interesting, Zelepukin wasn't a DITR but developed nicely, drafted at 22 years old, he isn't a huge steal but definitely an impact player and clearly the best late pick.
The others in this group are right where you'd want them having come from the middle of the draft. No disappointments.
Next 8 - 74-76ov
18 Devils (from Capitals) Craig Conroy 70b 76 Blues
57 Canucks (from Blackhawks) Ian Moran 68a 76a (1) Canucks
20 Jets (from Red Wings) Robert Lang 70b 75b (3) Jets
17 Devils (from Rangers) Felix Potvin 70a 75a (3) Leafs
7 Jets (from Devils) Sergei Nemchinov 75c 75 Kings
11 Canucks (from Kings) Derian Hatcher 70a 75 Canucks
42 Kings (from Canadiens) Alexander Godynyuk 67c 74 Kings
8 Flames (from Blues) Slava Kozlov 71a 74a (6) Kings
Ok, here we have 2 huge busts, starting with Sergei Nemchinov, drafted by the Jets 7th overall, he would have been better value selected in the 2nd round. For comparison I threw the top 2nd rounder in this group not a DITR, Godynyuk, a player I created immediately as 67, he organically grew into 74ov (only camped once).
The other bust is Slava Kozlov, a poor roll of 6 will obviously be addressed in the offseason, he could jump up to 77a with a solid roll. Placing him into the top 15, but not top 10 value and lags significantly behind Doug Weight who was 19 at the draft but currently 6 rating points higher!
Meanwhile Ian Moran stands out, another DITR, a clear steal and by the Canucks of course! And then Rob Lang with a re-roll could vault his value into the top 15 of this draft as well, making it a nice value pick.
The end of the draft 67-73ov (there could be more outliers I didn't find)
16 Canucks (from Flames) Bryan Smolinski 70b 73a (1) Jets
19 Blackhawks (from Oilers) Roman Turek 71a 72b (6) Whalers
51 Whalers Cam Stewart 68a 72a (5) Whalers
23 Canadiens (from MapleLeafs) Vyacheslav Butsayev 70b 70 Habs
62 Jets (from Red Wings) Jeff Nielsen 69a 70 Flames
54 Devils (from Sabres) Chris McAlpine 68b 67b (2) Devils
This isn't the full draft but it's the remainder of useful players, and it features the resurrection of Bryan Smolinski, hitting on his roll, he regains value. Although still in bust territory.
Roman Turek rolled poorly, he could jump to 78b will a nice roll and, making him a solid pick at 19.
Cam Stewart was a DITR and had a poor roll as well, his stock could jump significantly.
The rest are pretty much busts, with Butsayev going from a nice steal DITR pick to a big disappointment for the Habs.
1990 Summarized
I would caution against drafting over-age players like Nemchinov too high in the draft, that was a huge mistake at 7th overall. Now he has had a decent career, but value-wise it could be the worst pick ever.
The DITR definitely provided value for a couple of players, but there are still some surprises without any ditr involved, and it appears player development after the draft makes the difference. Some DITR did not pan out at all and while I wouldn't call them busts, it shows what a crap-shoot the draft can be after the top 15 or so picks.
Now this could be a product of not camping guys soon enough. From the looks of it, current prospects have slipped or not kept pace with their compatriots who were drafted lower but turned pro sooner. I think Kozlov (8th) v Weight (6th) being the prime example, a huge rating gap between them, despite being drafted back-to-back and an argument could be made that Kozlov should have been picked higher (being younger).
I'll take a look at the 1991 draft after dice-rolls are updated on the prospect page as it will require far more cross-referencing. Hope you enjoyed this!
